Iran's IRGC in disarray after major defeats. What's next?

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps: Uncertain Future After US-Israeli Strikes

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), once a powerful militia, is facing a turning point following devastating military setbacks. Experts believe the recent US and Israeli strikes in Iran have significantly altered its trajectory.

Origins and Ideological Foundation:

Founded in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution, the IRGC was created to safeguard and spread the Islamic Republic's values. Initially formed as a fringe militia, it grew to become the regime's most feared and powerful force.

Strategic Losses and Economic Strain:

Recent US and Israeli operations have led to significant losses for the IRGC. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have been crippled, Iranian military infrastructure has been destroyed, and the group's regional footprint has been decimated. Additionally, sanctions, cyberattacks, and battlefield losses have put immense pressure on the IRGC's economic empire.

Internal Divisions and Uncertain Prospects:

Despite these challenges, the IRGC is unlikely to turn against the regime. The group's leadership remains loyal for ideological and material reasons. However, the IRGC may shift focus inward, relying on domestic repression rather than external aggression.

Possible Regime Change:

Some experts suggest that the IRGC's younger cadre may push for change, as they are less religious but equally hardline. Other reformist elements within the regime envision a different path, focused on normalization and growth.

Uncertain Future:

The future of the IRGC remains uncertain. Its influence and ideological underpinnings have been significantly weakened. The group's ability to maintain its grip on power will depend on its next generation of leaders and their ideological and strategic decisions.