India's Suspension of Indus Waters Treaty Raises War Fears

The Indus Waters Treaty, in place for decades, faces a significant challenge as India suspends it, leading Pakistan to warn of potential conflict.

Seventy-four years ago, writer Saadat Hasan Manto penned a story about India potentially cutting off water to Pakistan, a theme now relevant with both countries being nuclear-armed and highly populated.

Following an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir in April 2025, India accused armed groups backed by Pakistan, leading to India's withdrawal from the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a crucial agreement for over 270 million people in Pakistan.

Pakistan's National Security Committee rejected India's move, warning that any interference with Pakistan's water would be seen as an act of war. This led to a four-day conflict in May, eventually halted by a ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump.

Despite the ceasefire, both countries are engaged in diplomatic efforts to justify their actions. India has stated its decision to suspend the IWT permanently, citing violations of the treaty's peace and progress objectives.

For Pakistan, any disruption to water supply poses a severe threat to agriculture, food security, and livelihoods. While India may not be able to entirely stop water flow to Pakistan, even a minor diversion could have significant consequences, especially during winter when water scarcity is critical.

The Indus River, a vital water source, flows through both countries, originating from Tibet and traveling through disputed regions before reaching Pakistan. The treaty, signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, allocates specific rivers to each country and outlines a dispute resolution mechanism.

Despite the treaty's endurance through wars and conflicts, recent tensions have strained its stability. India's suspension of the treaty is seen as a symbolic move with limited immediate impact on Pakistan, given legal constraints and geographical limitations.

While India may not be able to completely block water flow into Pakistan, the threat of future disruptions remains a concern. Pakistan is working to enhance its water storage capacity to mitigate potential risks from India's actions.

The breakdown in trust between the two countries raises fears of further escalation. Diplomatic efforts and international legal intervention are seen as crucial to resolving the water-sharing dispute and preventing a potential conflict over water resources.