Putin's Demands Pose Challenges for Zelenskyy in Deal Making

Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly demanding control of the entire Donbas region as part of any peace deal with Ukraine. The Donbas includes Luhansk and Donetsk, with Russian forces occupying most of Luhansk and about 70% of Donetsk. This area is historically significant for Ukraine's industry, housing coal mines, heavy industries, and old arms manufacturing plants from the Soviet era.

The Ukrainian forces hold 30% of Donetsk, which they would need to give up under Putin's demands. These areas, including cities like Sloviansk, have political and strategic importance. The cities serve as strong fortifications, forming a defensive "belt" crucial for Ukraine's defense against potential Russian attacks towards the Dnieper River. Giving up these positions would weaken Ukraine's defensive capabilities.

Moreover, the region holds valuable mineral fields, including lithium, titanium, and rare earth deposits. Russian forces have been unable to capture Sloviansk and Kramatorsk due to the strong defenses of these "fortress cities." Some US officials doubt the credibility of any security guarantees Putin might offer, given his history of bad faith, deception, and treaty-breaking in European security matters.

Putin's past breaches of agreements, such as the Budapest Agreement of 1994 and the Friendship Treaty with Ukraine in 1997, raise skepticism about any assurances he may provide. Despite claims of breaches being Kyiv's fault, historical evidence suggests otherwise. Putin's ambitions in Ukraine extend beyond the Donbas region, aiming to conquer the entire country and integrate it into the Russian federation. Any guarantees from Putin should be viewed as tactical and short-term, given his track record of breaking agreements for strategic gains.